Northern powerhouses the obvious first port of call in Carlisle Bell - expert analysis and quotes for historic handicap

Four of the last seven runnings of this historic feature have been won by the northern training powerhouses of David O’Meara, Karl Burke or Richard Fahey, so it’s not difficult to guess where punters will start. O’Meara has two wins and looks the obvious place.

He has had 17 runners in the last ten years and is often mob-handed, so it could be significant he relies on just one representative this year in the shape of Capital Guarantee. The five-year-old is still 9lb higher than when successful at Thirsk last month, but has run two solid races since.

Capital Guarantee is 1lb lower than when beaten only four and a half lengths in a 1m1f handicap at York last time and maybe that trip stretched him. All of his wins have come at this distance or shorter, and the return to a mile on this stiff track could provide the ideal test.

Burke has been more selective with his runners, saddling only five in the last ten years and, alongside his 2022 winner Invincibly, the trainer has also sent out a second and a third. The runner-up was Liamarty Dreams two years ago and he is back for another crack.

Liamarty Dreams is now 4lb lower than when chasing home Mostawaa in 2023 and gave notice that he could soon cash in on this mark when second at Leicester three weeks ago. A return to prominent tactics helped that day and he was up with the pace throughout when second a couple of years ago, so there is a good chance he will be on the sharp end early.

Fahey’s sole representative is Sailthisshipalone, who was well held at Doncaster last time. That was in a hot race, though, and Warren Fentiman takes over in the saddle. He is value for 5lb.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Ground and weather

The going on Tuesday was good to soft, soft in places. The weather on raceday is forecast to be overcast, with the odd light shower in the morning and maximum daytime temperatures ranging from 18-20C. 

What they say

Daniel Kubler, joint-trainer of Crack Shot
He's new to us this year and has some high-class form. It feels like we haven't quite unlocked the key to him. He ran well at Sandown last time, which was a higher grade of race, but this is still fiercely competitive. We wouldn't want the ground to get really soft.

Jack Channon, trainer of Arkhalia Flynn and Hiromichi
Arkhalia Flynn is a lovely horse who has been improving all year. We've been waiting for some soft ground for him, I think the stiff track will suit and he has an outstanding chance. Hiromichi is another good horse but has taken a little while to come to himself this spring. He's in the best form I've had him all year, and he'll love the soft ground and stiff mile.

David O'Meara, trainer of Capital Guarantee
He's in good form and we ran him over too far last time. If a lot of rain came it would be a negative, so I'm just keeping an eye on that.

Lucinda Russell, trainer of Dain Ma Nut In
It will be interesting to see how he gets on because he was very progressive last season, particularly at Musselburgh. He hasn't quite hit the form he was in last season, but he's been coming into himself at home. We're hoping for a big run if he can handle the track.

James Horton, trainer of Navagio
He's in good shape and has been waiting for soft ground, which it looks like he'll get, but he has a terrible draw so will need a bit of luck.

Gemma Tutty, trainer of Look Back Smiling
He's really fresh and well. We've been waiting for the softer ground and hope we'll find some tomorrow.

Charlie Fellowes, trainer of Glam Squad
He ran really well at Kempton two starts ago from a horrible draw. Everything went wrong at Chelmsford, where he missed the break and got too far back. He looks fantastic, he's a lovely big horse and we know he likes cut in the ground. I think conditions are ideal for him.
Reporting by Sadie Iddenden

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